Solar LCOE USA : Levelized Cost of Energy
Empirical and modeled levelized cost of energy for U.S. solar PV. Historical trend (2010–2024), regional breakdown, segment comparison, and market value analysis. Data from LBNL, Lazard, EIA, and NREL.
$60
$/MWh — LBNL 2024
Before tax credits
$41
$/MWh — LBNL 2024
After ITC/PTC
−82%
Decline 2010–2022
~$270 → $48/MWh
$38–78
Lazard v18 range
Unsubsidized 2025
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1. LBNL Empirical LCOE Trend (2010–2024)
Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Utility-Scale Solar 2025 Edition. Generation-weighted average LCOE from empirical project-level data (1,628 projects, 104 GWAC).
Utility-scale LCOE trend — $/MWh, 2024$ (LBNL empirical)
| Year | LCOE pre-credit ($/MWh) | LCOE post-credit ($/MWh) | Key driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| ~2010 | ~270 | — | High module prices |
| 2016 | ~80 | — | Module price collapse |
| 2020 | ~50 | — | Low CAPEX & financing |
| 2022 | 48 | 36 | Historic low |
| 2023 | 53 | 36 | Rising CAPEX & rates |
| 2024 | 60 | 41 | +25% since 2022 |
Key insight: LCOE fell 82% between 2010 and 2022, driven by lower CAPEX, falling O&M costs, and longer design lives (from 21.5 to 35 years). Since 2022, LCOE has reversed upward (+25%) due to rising CAPEX (supply chain, tariffs), higher financing costs (WACC from ~5% to 7%+), and lower average capacity factors as solar expands into less sunny regions.
2. LCOE by U.S. Region (2024 Projects)
Source: LBNL 2025 Edition. 225 projects totaling 26.4 GWAC with 2024 commercial operation date.
LCOE pre-credit by region — $/MWh, 2024 projects (LBNL)
| ISO/RTO Region | LCOE pre-credit ($/MWh) | LCOE post-credit ($/MWh) |
|---|---|---|
| Non-ISO West | 48 | 31 |
| CAISO (California) | 52 | 34 |
| ERCOT (Texas) | 52 | 34 |
| SPP | ~65 | ~45 |
| Southeast (non-ISO) | ~65 | ~45 |
| MISO | ~70 | ~48 |
| PJM | ~75 | ~50 |
| NYISO (New York) | 108 | 77 |
| National average | 60 | 41 |
Regional spread: LCOE varies by more than 2x across regions. The non-ISO West (Arizona, Nevada, Colorado) benefits from the highest irradiance and large project sizes. NYISO's premium reflects smaller projects, lower solar resources, and higher labor/permitting costs. Tax credits narrow but do not eliminate the gap.
3. Lazard LCOE+ Analysis (2025)
Source: Lazard Levelized Cost of Energy+ v18 (June 2025). Modeled LCOE for U.S. projects, unsubsidized.
| Technology | LCOE range ($/MWh) | Average ($/MWh) | YoY change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Utility-scale solar PV | $38–78 | $58 | −4% |
| Solar PV with PTC | $20–45 | — | — |
| Solar + storage | $60–210 | — | — |
| Onshore wind | $37–86 | — | +18% |
| Gas combined-cycle | $39–101 | — | — |
Lazard vs LBNL: Lazard's modeled average ($58/MWh) is close to LBNL's empirical figure ($60/MWh). Lazard uses a standard financial model across projects; LBNL uses actual project-level CAPEX, O&M, and performance data. Solar and wind remain the cheapest new-build generation, even unsubsidized. Lazard reports an 84% decline in solar LCOE since 2009.
4. EIA AEO2025 Projections (2030 Online Year)
Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2025, Reference case. LCOE for new resources entering service in 2030. Includes IRA tax credits. 2024 dollars.
| Technology | Simple avg ($/MWh) | Cap.-weighted avg ($/MWh) |
|---|---|---|
| Solar PV | 31.86 | 26.06 |
| PV-battery hybrid | 53.44 | 45.90 |
| Onshore wind | 37.58 | 37.82 |
| Gas combined-cycle | 64.55 | 67.09 |
| Offshore wind | 88.16 | — |
| Advanced nuclear | 81.45 | — |
Solar is cheapest by 2030: EIA projects solar PV as the lowest-cost new generation at $26/MWh (capacity-weighted, with tax credits). This is less than half the cost of gas combined-cycle ($67/MWh). The capacity-weighted average is lower than the simple average because solar additions are concentrated in high-irradiance, low-cost regions.
5. Solar Market Value vs. LCOE by Region (2024)
Source: LBNL 2025 Edition. Energy + capacity market value of solar generation compared to LCOE. Negative net value signals economic stress for new projects.
| Region | Market value ($/MWh) | LCOE post-credit ($/MWh) | Net value ($/MWh) |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPP | 60 | ~45 | +17 |
| Southeast BAs | ~50 | ~45 | +5 |
| National average | 32 | 41 | −9 |
| ERCOT | ~35 | 34 | ~0 |
| CAISO | 18 | 34 | −16 |
| NYISO | ~40 | 77 | −34 |
Value deflation is real: Solar’s wholesale market value fell 35% to $32/MWh nationally in 2024 as energy prices dropped. CAISO (30% solar penetration) has the lowest value at $18/MWh—well below even post-credit LCOE. 9 of 30 balancing authorities now show negative net value, up from near-zero in 2023. This dynamic is accelerating the shift toward solar+storage hybrids, which add ~$25/MWh to LCOE after credits but capture higher-value evening hours.
6. Solar+Storage LCOE Premium (2024)
Source: LBNL 2025 Edition. Storage adder for PV+battery hybrid projects.
| Metric | Before tax credits | After tax credits |
|---|---|---|
| Standalone PV LCOE | $60/MWh | $41/MWh |
| Storage LCOE adder | +$36/MWh | +$25/MWh |
| PV+battery hybrid LCOE | $87/MWh | $59/MWh |
Storage economics: Battery costs added $1/WAC-PV in 2024 with an average storage capacity ratio of 0.57 and 3.3 hours of duration. Despite the LCOE premium, storage enables solar projects to shift output to higher-value evening hours and earn capacity credits, improving net revenue. EIA projects PV-battery hybrid LCOE at $46/MWh by 2030.
Sources
LBNL — Utility-Scale Solar, 2025 Edition
Seel & Mulvaney Kemp. Empirical LCOE from 1,628 projects (104 GWAC). Project-level CAPEX, O&M, performance, PPA pricing, and market value data through 2024.
emp.lbl.gov/utility-scale-solar →Lazard — LCOE+ v18 (June 2025)
Levelized Cost of Energy analysis, 18th edition. Modeled LCOE for new-build generation technologies in the U.S. Unsubsidized and subsidized scenarios.
lazard.com/research-insights →EIA — Levelized Costs in the AEO2025 (April 2025)
LCOE and LACE for new generation resources entering service in 2030. Reference case with IRA tax credits. 25 EMM supply regions.
eia.gov/outlooks/aeo →NREL — Annual Technology Baseline 2024
CAPEX, O&M, and capacity factor projections for utility-scale, commercial, and residential PV. Three innovation scenarios (Conservative, Moderate, Advanced) through 2050.
atb.nrel.gov/electricity/2024 →