Solar capture price — Europe
When a solar farm sells its electricity, it earns on average less than the average market price — because all panels produce at the same time, around midday, when prices are at their lowest. This page measures that gap for each European country and shows how it widens as solar grows.
Last updated: June 2026 · data snapshot 2023-2024 (with 2020-2025 framing)
Capture price, capture rate, cannibalisation
The capture price (or market value) is the production-weighted average day-ahead price a solar plant actually earns. Because solar produces mostly at midday — when abundant supply pushes prices down — its capture price is below the average market price (baseload).
Capture rate: the capture price as a % of the annual average day-ahead price (baseload). A 70% rate means solar captures 70% of the average price. The higher solar penetration rises, the more this rate falls — the cannibalisation effect.
Key nuance: a low capture rate does not mean a low capture price in absolute terms. Germany has Europe's lowest rate (~60% in 2024) yet a higher €/MWh capture price than Spain, because its market price level is higher. Read both indicators together.
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1. Observed data — solar capture rate by country
Observed dataAnnual capture rate = capture price / average day-ahead price (baseload), in %. Computed from hourly ENTSO-E prices and hourly solar generation. The lower the figure, the stronger the cannibalisation.
⚠ Periods differ across sources: GEM = January–October; Ember / Clean Carbon = full year. Not strictly comparable cell by cell. See "Known limitations".
| Country | 2023 | 2024 | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 76% | 59–60% | GEM · Ember/CCC |
| France | 86% | 67% | GEM (Jan–Oct) |
| Spain | 84% | 68% | GEM (Jan–Oct) |
| Greece | 79% | 71% | GEM (Jan–Oct) |
| Italy | — | 86–89% | Ember / Clean Carbon |
| Finland | — | ~86% | Ember / Clean Carbon |
| United Kingdom | — | ~90% | Ember / Clean Carbon |
| Austria | — | 63–66% | Ember / Clean Carbon |
| Czechia · Slovakia · Hungary · Romania | — | 63–66% | Enervis via pv-magazine |
Germany 2024: 59% (Ember, full year) to 60% (GEM, Jan–Oct); S&P reports 69% using a slightly different definition — see "Known limitations". Values marked ~ or as ranges are rounded or read off charts.
2. Observed data — capture price in absolute terms (€/MWh)
Observed dataVolume-weighted average (VWAP) solar capture price, full-year 2024, and change versus 2023. The €/MWh level depends on the country's market price level, not only on the capture rate.
| Country | Capture price 2024 (€/MWh) | YoY change | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 54.6 | −31% | S&P Global 2025 |
| Spain | 45.6 | −40% | S&P Global 2025 |
Germany has a lower rate than Spain but a higher €/MWh capture price: its average market price is higher. Italy: very high national capture price (e.g. ~125 €/MWh in March 2026, monthly snapshot — Modo Energy), reflecting low penetration and high prices.
3. Context — cannibalisation & PV penetration
ContextStructural relationship: the larger solar's share of the mix, the lower the average capture rate. European framing and German forecast.
ℹ Aggregates / framing forecasts. Definitions and scope vary by provider.
| Indicator | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Europe average solar capture rate — 2024 | 75% | Synertics |
| Europe average solar capture rate — 2020 | 101% | Synertics |
| Europe solar penetration (share of mix) — 2024 vs 2020 | 11.2% vs 4.1% | Synertics |
| EU solar penetration (share of mix) — 2025 | ~13% (369 TWh) | Ember EER 2026 |
| Germany — forecast solar capture rate 2025 (baseload ref. €92.7/MWh) | 66% | netztransparenz / EEG via GEM |
| Germany — forecast onshore / offshore wind 2025 (ref.) | 90% / 92% | netztransparenz / EEG via GEM |
Solar's capture rate is structurally below wind's (output more concentrated within the day). The "101%" of 2020 reflects a low-penetration period when solar captured slightly above the average price.
Methodology & sources
Capture price = hourly day-ahead prices weighted by hourly solar generation. Capture rate = capture price ÷ average annual day-ahead price (baseload). Figures are gross market value, before any support scheme (CfD, EEG, etc.). Underlying data: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform, by bidding zone (≈ country).
Sources: Bruegel EU renewables value tracker (institutional) · Ember European Electricity Review (institutional) · GEM Energy Analytics · S&P Global · Clean Carbon Consultants · Synertics · Modo Energy · ENTSO-E.
Known limitations: (1) Definitions are not uniform — the capture rate depends on the reference price (day-ahead average vs other market mean) and on the treatment of negative-price hours, hence Germany 2024 ranging 59% (Ember) → 60% (GEM) → 69% (S&P). (2) Periods differ: GEM 2024 covers Jan–Oct, Ember/CCC cover the full year (usually a few points higher). (3) Modo figures are monthly snapshots, not annual. (4) Open-access coverage is partial — the Netherlands, Belgium, Poland and Portugal lack reliable public annual series and are not quantified here. (5) Excludes the value added by storage or demand flexibility. Values do not constitute investment advice.